Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.65 – 186.13

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 143.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.6 ±8.8

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 61.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 62.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 54.31Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504 ±9.8

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 27.06Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 140.7Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 18.37Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10254, 1768, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10254, 1768, 61

Auto

45.9 27%

Teleop

78.7 46%

Endgame

44.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10063, 5687, 1350

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10063, 5687, 1350

Auto

57.4 31%

Teleop

98.5 54%

Endgame

27.7 15%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.7pts

Blue projected score186.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.5
Score range: 152–212
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.6Season APEX504

45.9Auto57.4

78.7Teleop98.5

44.7Endgame27.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	60
teleop	139	166
endgame	139	92
foul	5	0
total	332	318

Result

Final score

332 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 143.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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