Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.18 – 94.41

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.4 ±11.2

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 5.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 25.58Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 31.42Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±11.2

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 28.21Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 64.05Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 2.15Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8544, 2168, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 2168, 6324

Auto

25.4 42%

Teleop

20.2 33%

Endgame

14.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1119, 348, 3719

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1119, 348, 3719

Auto

22.4 26%

Teleop

19.4 23%

Endgame

43.2 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.2pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.2
Score range: 36–120
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.4Season APEX299.5

25.4Auto22.4

20.2Teleop19.4

14.9Endgame43.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	34
teleop	21	92
endgame	42	40
foul	0	0
total	87	166

Result

Final score

87 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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