Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.97 – 214.18

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.2 ±12.2

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 19.16Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 40.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 31.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.6 ±10.5

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 132.21Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 32.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 49.26Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3719, 10973, 663

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3719, 10973, 663

Auto

19.9 24%

Teleop

45.5 56%

Endgame

16.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 6333, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10254, 6333, 2079

Auto

48.6 23%

Teleop

121.8 58%

Endgame

39.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91pts

Blue projected score214.2pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.2
Score range: 55–250
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 201.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.2Season APEX542.6

19.9Auto48.6

45.5Teleop121.8

16.5Endgame39.6

30Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	58
teleop	29	131
endgame	21	27
foul	5	0
total	74	216

Result

Final score

74 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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