Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

526.24 – 283.76

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

558 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.6 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 242.82Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 26.94Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 256.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.7 ±9.3

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 54.3Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 129.86Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 99.6Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 10063, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

526.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 10063, 5687

Auto

117.5 23%

Teleop

291.7 58%

Endgame

97.2 19%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 10254, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 10254, 1699

Auto

41.7 15%

Teleop

153.2 55%

Endgame

81.6 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score526.2pts

Blue projected score283.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 242.5
Score range: 248–562
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 914 vs event baseline 198.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.6Season APEX610.7

117.5Auto41.7

291.7Teleop153.2

97.2Endgame81.6

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	44
teleop	312	204
endgame	141	108
foul	0	0
total	558	356

Result

Final score

558 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Match videos

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