Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.22 – 176.08

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 85.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±17.3

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 59.97Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 51.04Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 65.21Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.3 ±16.2

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 53.93Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 56.25Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 65.9Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5439, 6929, 3996

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5439, 6929, 3996

Auto

31.8 18%

Teleop

91.7 53%

Endgame

50.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9234, 8132, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9234, 8132, 4627

Auto

30.3 18%

Teleop

90.8 54%

Endgame

48.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.2pts

Blue projected score176.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.1
Score range: 148–204
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 157.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.3Season APEX227.3

31.8Auto30.3

91.7Teleop90.8

50Endgame48.5

77Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	44
teleop	158	120
endgame	72	70
foul	15	0
total	289	234

Result

Final score

289 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 85.4 pts

Match videos

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