Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.41 – 210.72

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

247 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±14.6

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 59.66Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 93.29Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 102.46Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±13.9

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 20.47Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 93.04Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 97.21Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 4947, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 4947, 5528

Auto

46.4 19%

Teleop

123.5 51%

Endgame

71.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3117, 6364, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 6364, 3544

Auto

26.5 13%

Teleop

129.5 61%

Endgame

55.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score255.4pts

Blue projected score210.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.7
Score range: 183–283
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 155.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320Season APEX375.6

46.4Auto26.5

123.5Teleop129.5

71.8Endgame55.4

45Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	39
teleop	128	139
endgame	34	95
foul	15	0
total	247	273

Result

Final score

247 – 273

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 pts

Match videos

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