Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.57 – 173.88

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±15.6

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 97.92Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 25.75Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 125.9Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±17.3

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 59.21Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 50.57Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 64.1Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3360, 9220, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3360, 9220, 3986

Auto

44.5 19%

Teleop

148.7 64%

Endgame

39.9 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5439, 6929, 3996

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5439, 6929, 3996

Auto

34.7 20%

Teleop

90.7 53%

Endgame

46.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.6pts

Blue projected score173.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.7
Score range: 146–278
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX219.3

44.5Auto34.7

148.7Teleop90.7

39.9Endgame46.2

94Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	20
teleop	145	97
endgame	52	69
foul	20	5
total	269	191

Result

Final score

269 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Match videos

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