Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.28 – 166.13

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 44.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±16.8

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 47.85Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 60.95Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 59.48Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.3 ±16.2

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 50.17Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 53.24Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 62.72Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2626, 7605, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2626, 7605, 9624

Auto

42.3 27%

Teleop

98.4 64%

Endgame

13.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9234, 8132, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9234, 8132, 4627

Auto

28.5 18%

Teleop

85.7 54%

Endgame

44.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score168.3pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.2
Score range: 138–196
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.9Season APEX227.3

42.3Auto28.5

98.4Teleop85.7

13.2Endgame44

65Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	40
teleop	113	115
endgame	27	72
foul	15	0
total	197	227

Result

Final score

197 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 44.8 pts

Match videos

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