Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.08 – 224.89

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±19.1

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 31.34Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 37.83Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 46.91Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±17.3

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 91.02Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 39.64Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 94.23Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3550, 8224, 8067

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3550, 8224, 8067

Auto

17.0 12%

Teleop

76.1 54%

Endgame

47.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4952, 5618, 8152

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4952, 5618, 8152

Auto

31.9 15%

Teleop

137.9 66%

Endgame

40.1 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score224.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.8
Score range: 88–253
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 153.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211Season APEX300.2

17Auto31.9

76.1Teleop137.9

47.9Endgame40.1

15Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	29
teleop	93	109
endgame	37	81
foul	0	30
total	166	249

Result

Final score

166 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Match videos

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