Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.8 – 144.25

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±13.9

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 18.25Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 90.61Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 95.94Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.3 ±16.2

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 42.9Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 46.26Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 55.09Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3117, 6364, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 6364, 3544

Auto

28.1 14%

Teleop

123.1 60%

Endgame

55.0 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9234, 8132, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9234, 8132, 4627

Auto

22.5 16%

Teleop

75.5 54%

Endgame

41.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score204.8pts

Blue projected score144.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.6
Score range: 117–232
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 151.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.6Season APEX227.3

28.1Auto22.5

123.1Teleop75.5

55Endgame41.3

73Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	48
teleop	158	122
endgame	65	57
foul	5	20
total	252	247

Result

Final score

252 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 75 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.