Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.15 – 157.6

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±14.6

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 57.68Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 92.41Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 101.06Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±16.8

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 44.31Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 56.88Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 56.41Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 4947, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 4947, 5528

Auto

41.8 18%

Teleop

125.0 53%

Endgame

70.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2626, 7605, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2626, 7605, 9624

Auto

38.3 27%

Teleop

91.8 65%

Endgame

11.2 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score251.2pts

Blue projected score157.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.6
Score range: 131–278
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320Season APEX310.9

41.8Auto38.3

125Teleop91.8

70.2Endgame11.2

53Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	57
teleop	125	123
endgame	83	22
foul	15	10
total	288	212

Result

Final score

288 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Match videos

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