Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.42 – 183.01

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 58.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±17.3

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 98.77Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 48.93Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 103.72Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±17.3

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 62.59Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 54.49Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 65.93Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4952, 5618, 8152

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4952, 5618, 8152

Auto

26.0 11%

Teleop

164.2 71%

Endgame

41.4 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5439, 6929, 3996

/ 100 compat

Projected

183 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5439, 6929, 3996

Auto

34.6 19%

Teleop

100.0 56%

Endgame

44.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score251.4pts

Blue projected score183pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.4
Score range: 156–278
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.2Season APEX219.3

26Auto34.6

164.2Teleop100

41.4Endgame44.9

39Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	42
teleop	56	66
endgame	39	58
foul	0	0
total	151	166

Result

Final score

151 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 58.7 pts

Match videos

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