Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.46 – 146.75

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±15.6

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 105.81Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 32.06Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 128.59Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±19.1

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 42.43Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 44.82Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 59.5Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3360, 9220, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3360, 9220, 3986

Auto

49.6 20%

Teleop

157.0 63%

Endgame

43.7 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3550, 8224, 8067

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3550, 8224, 8067

Auto

15.6 11%

Teleop

77.2 56%

Endgame

45.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score266.5pts

Blue projected score146.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.7
Score range: 120–293
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 150.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX211

49.6Auto15.6

157Teleop77.2

43.7Endgame45.2

87Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	28
teleop	122	62
endgame	34	60
foul	15	0
total	204	0

Result

Final score

204 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 pts

Match videos

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