Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

243.11 – 256.91

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±15.6

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 95.19Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 23.95Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 123.97Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±14.6

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 60.63Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 93.89Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 102.39Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3360, 9220, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3360, 9220, 3986

Auto

45.1 20%

Teleop

142.3 62%

Endgame

40.4 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5800, 4947, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 4947, 5528

Auto

51.9 21%

Teleop

129.8 53%

Endgame

62.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.1pts

Blue projected score256.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.8
Score range: 214–286
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 160.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX320

45.1Auto51.9

142.3Teleop129.8

40.4Endgame62.8

96Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	55
teleop	136	132
endgame	97	60
foul	0	0
total	271	247

Result

Final score

271 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 18.9 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.