Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.73 – 192.67

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 79 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±14.6

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 57.8Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 91.53Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 99.4Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±17.3

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 65.82Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 55.15Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 71.7Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 4947, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 4947, 5528

Auto

49.9 21%

Teleop

120.0 51%

Endgame

66.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5439, 6929, 3996

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5439, 6929, 3996

Auto

33.3 18%

Teleop

101.8 54%

Endgame

52.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score248.7pts

Blue projected score192.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.1
Score range: 164–278
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320Season APEX219.3

49.9Auto33.3

120Teleop101.8

66.9Endgame52.7

61Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	39
teleop	190	32
endgame	36	21
foul	15	0
total	306	92

Result

Final score

306 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 79 pts

Match videos

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