Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.77 – 220.79

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 249

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±15.6

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 98.21Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 27.13Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 126.43Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±13.9

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 23.4Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 97.33Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 100.06Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3360, 9220, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3360, 9220, 3986

Auto

45.5 19%

Teleop

147.6 63%

Endgame

41.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3117, 6364, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 6364, 3544

Auto

28.3 13%

Teleop

130.5 59%

Endgame

62.3 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score251.8pts

Blue projected score220.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 192–281
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 159.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX375.6

45.5Auto28.3

147.6Teleop130.5

41.5Endgame62.3

90Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	34
teleop	111	110
endgame	34	100
foul	5	5
total	193	249

Result

Final score

193 – 249

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 pts

Match videos

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