Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.47 – 225.41

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±14.6

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 58.67Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 92.84Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 100.96Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±17.3

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 39.92Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 91.08Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 94.41Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 4947, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 4947, 5528

Auto

50.6 21%

Teleop

123.6 52%

Endgame

64.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5618, 4952, 8152

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5618, 4952, 8152

Auto

30.4 15%

Teleop

131.0 63%

Endgame

46.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score252.5pts

Blue projected score225.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.1
Score range: 196–281
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320Season APEX300.2

50.6Auto30.4

123.6Teleop131

64.3Endgame46.6

52Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	46
teleop	99	108
endgame	81	47
foul	0	0
total	227	201

Result

Final score

227 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Match videos

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