Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.83 – 105.7

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.8 ±17

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 18.86Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 8.57Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 0.4Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±19.7

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 46.4Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 50.73Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 8.57Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 3985, 9220

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 3985, 9220

Auto

9.0 35%

Teleop

15.8 61%

Endgame

1.2 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4947, 3975, 3532

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4947, 3975, 3532

Auto

23.4 23%

Teleop

45.0 45%

Endgame

32.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.8pts

Blue projected score105.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.9
Score range: 5–129
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.8Season APEX256.5

9Auto23.4

15.8Teleop45

1.2Endgame32.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	18
teleop	14	19
endgame	19	42
foul	0	0
total	41	79

Result

Final score

41 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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