Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.22 – 51.32

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.8 ±17.7

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 62.29Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 31.03Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 9.9Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±17.3

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 31.71Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 9.71Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 9.9Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5528, 3533, 3550

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5528, 3533, 3550

Auto

27.3 29%

Teleop

33.0 35%

Endgame

33.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8132, 3996, 9234

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8132, 3996, 9234

Auto

15.5 32%

Teleop

17.9 36%

Endgame

15.7 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.2pts

Blue projected score51.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.9
Score range: 28–126
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.8Season APEX215.8

27.3Auto15.5

33Teleop17.9

33.2Endgame15.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	39
teleop	81	62
endgame	38	27
foul	0	0
total	151	128

Result

Final score

151 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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