Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170 – 100

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.8 ±16.8

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 64Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 62Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 44Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.9 ±17.5

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 44Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 49.71Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX 6.29Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3986, 4952, 8152

/ 100 compat

Projected

170 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3986, 4952, 8152

Auto

22.3 14%

Teleop

92.3 56%

Endgame

49.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3117, 7605, 7471

/ 100 compat

Projected

100 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 7605, 7471

Auto

17.4 19%

Teleop

53.7 60%

Endgame

18.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170pts

Blue projected score100pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70
Score range: 79–191
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.8Season APEX166.9

22.3Auto17.4

92.3Teleop53.7

49.7Endgame18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	245	33
endgame	32	3
foul	25	0
total	327	50

Result

Final score

327 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree