Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.03 – 194.88

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±19.1

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 35.44Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 41.53Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 63.06Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.9 ±17.1

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 92.12Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 93.4Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX 9.36Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3975, 3550, 3996

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3975, 3550, 3996

Auto

16.4 13%

Teleop

72.5 56%

Endgame

41.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6364, 4947, 7471

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6364, 4947, 7471

Auto

17.6 9%

Teleop

113.2 59%

Endgame

60.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140pts

Blue projected score194.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.8
Score range: 113–222
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.4Season APEX231.9

16.4Auto17.6

72.5Teleop113.2

41.2Endgame60.4

41Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	19
teleop	87	84
endgame	28	75
foul	0	0
total	149	178

Result

Final score

149 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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