Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.97 – 143.29

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187 ±18.8

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 3.42Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 32.1Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 49.45Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.9 ±17.5

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX -2.69Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 16.58Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 129.4Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4955, 6869, 5800

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4955, 6869, 5800

Auto

12.6 15%

Teleop

46.7 56%

Endgame

24.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 296, 3117, 3986

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 296, 3117, 3986

Auto

26.4 18%

Teleop

76.6 53%

Endgame

41.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85pts

Blue projected score143.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.3
Score range: 58–170
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 150.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187Season APEX196.9

12.6Auto26.4

46.7Teleop76.6

24.3Endgame41.4

43Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	34
teleop	70	73
endgame	72	24
foul	0	0
total	160	131

Result

Final score

160 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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