Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.02 – 221.76

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±18.8

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 11.39Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -4.15Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 55.78Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±16.2

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 52.81Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 106.41Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 62.54Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3533, 3985, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3533, 3985, 4627

Auto

12.2 21%

Teleop

33.9 57%

Endgame

12.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9624, 3360, 5439

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9624, 3360, 5439

Auto

51.3 24%

Teleop

138.4 65%

Endgame

21.6 10%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score221.8pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.7
Score range: 36–249
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.2Season APEX316.9

12.2Auto51.3

33.9Teleop138.4

12.9Endgame21.6

68Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	62
teleop	26	96
endgame	13	39
foul	0	20
total	42	217

Result

Final score

42 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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