Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.08 – 88.05

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.6 ±14.6

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 95.84Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 98.52Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 96.72Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±18.6

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 29.87Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 16.07Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 42.11Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3544, 5528, 4952

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3544, 5528, 4952

Auto

56.5 20%

Teleop

166.5 59%

Endgame

59.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9220, 6622, 8224

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9220, 6622, 8224

Auto

15.7 21%

Teleop

30.4 41%

Endgame

28.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score291.1pts

Blue projected score88.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203
Score range: 61–318
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.6Season APEX184.6

56.5Auto15.7

166.5Teleop30.4

59.5Endgame28

62Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	25
teleop	158	75
endgame	49	11
foul	10	15
total	290	126

Result

Final score

290 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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