Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.03 – 94.15

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±17.9

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 38.38Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 53.44Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 58.21Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±19.2

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 55.47Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 9.18Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 29.5Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9234, 6929, 8067

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9234, 6929, 8067

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

82.3 57%

Endgame

43.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7605, 6872, 3532

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7605, 6872, 3532

Auto

28.6 33%

Teleop

36.8 43%

Endgame

20.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150pts

Blue projected score94.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.9
Score range: 67–177
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.5Season APEX233

19.5Auto28.6

82.3Teleop36.8

43Endgame20.2

46Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	32
teleop	55	57
endgame	86	23
foul	0	0
total	173	112

Result

Final score

173 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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