Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.98 – 188.47

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±17.5

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 36.07Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 35.8Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 90.11Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.5 ±16.2

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 30.4Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 104.13Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 53.94Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8224, 3550, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8224, 3550, 3544

Auto

15.9 10%

Teleop

89.3 58%

Endgame

50.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9220, 8152, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9220, 8152, 9624

Auto

16.5 10%

Teleop

110.5 68%

Endgame

36.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162pts

Blue projected score188.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.5
Score range: 135–215
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.9Season APEX282.5

15.9Auto16.5

89.3Teleop110.5

50Endgame36.7

58Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	47
teleop	148	107
endgame	58	37
foul	0	0
total	233	191

Result

Final score

233 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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