Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.91 – 64.52

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±18.5

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 32.86Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 54.98Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 65.07Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.1 ±20.8

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 38.48Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 19.78Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 6.26Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3532, 6929, 5439

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3532, 6929, 5439

Auto

31.0 21%

Teleop

69.5 47%

Endgame

47.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3975, 6622, 4955

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3975, 6622, 4955

Auto

17.7 29%

Teleop

17.2 28%

Endgame

25.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.9pts

Blue projected score64.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.4
Score range: 38–180
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.3Season APEX194.1

31Auto17.7

69.5Teleop17.2

47.7Endgame25.6

39Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	17
teleop	63	10
endgame	25	4
foul	0	15
total	134	46

Result

Final score

134 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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