Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.4 – 161.15

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.2 ±16.6

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -7.91Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 52.08Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 87.23Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.1 ±18.4

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 103.1Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7700West Tech Paladins

Provisional

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 33.9Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 24.15Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3985, 7605, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3985, 7605, 6364

Auto

25.9 22%

Teleop

73.7 64%

Endgame

15.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5528, 7700, 5443

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5528, 7700, 5443

Auto

45.8 31%

Teleop

66.3 45%

Endgame

36.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.4pts

Blue projected score161.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.7
Score range: 104–188
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 149.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.2Season APEX255.1

25.9Auto45.8

73.7Teleop66.3

15.6Endgame36.4

43Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	52
teleop	92	38
endgame	26	39
foul	0	0
total	165	129

Result

Final score

165 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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