Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.87 – 217.09

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.1 ±15.7

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 42.48Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 47.87Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 53.52Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±17.9

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 97.75Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 88.57Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 30.77Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5618, 4627, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5618, 4627, 9624

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

92.6 71%

Endgame

21.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8152, 4947, 3550

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8152, 4947, 3550

Auto

3.9 2%

Teleop

149.9 75%

Endgame

47.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.9pts

Blue projected score217.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.2
Score range: 117–244
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.1Season APEX289

16.6Auto3.9

92.6Teleop149.9

21.2Endgame47.1

59Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	17
teleop	89	122
endgame	39	109
foul	5	15
total	168	263

Result

Final score

168 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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