Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.69 – 244.49

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.8 ±18

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 39.87Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 122.52Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 8.3Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.9 ±16.3

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 92.7Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 104.4Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 47.39Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9234, 3986, 6872

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9234, 3986, 6872

Auto

31.4 18%

Teleop

96.6 56%

Endgame

45.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3544, 3360, 2626

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3544, 3360, 2626

Auto

40.3 17%

Teleop

168.3 70%

Endgame

32.2 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.7pts

Blue projected score244.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.8
Score range: 144–271
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.8Season APEX445.9

31.4Auto40.3

96.6Teleop168.3

45.1Endgame32.2

114Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	51
teleop	108	145
endgame	57	28
foul	5	0
total	202	224

Result

Final score

202 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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