Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.03 – 138.18

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

196 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.7 ±18

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 26.56Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 98.82Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 29.65Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.1 ±19.1

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 53.42Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 30.15Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 54.61Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9220, 4952, 3532

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9220, 4952, 3532

Auto

27.5 20%

Teleop

73.4 53%

Endgame

37.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3996, 6869, 8067

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3996, 6869, 8067

Auto

23.7 17%

Teleop

75.6 55%

Endgame

37.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155pts

Blue projected score138.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.8
Score range: 112–181
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.7Season APEX199.1

27.5Auto23.7

73.4Teleop75.6

37.2Endgame37.4

22Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	99	119
endgame	79	53
foul	0	0
total	196	198

Result

Final score

196 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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