Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.69 – 127.62

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.3 ±17.1

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX 0.75Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 42.91Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 100.03Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±17.5

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 56.35Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 54.96Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 16.31Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7471, 8132, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7471, 8132, 5528

Auto

50.9 39%

Teleop

49.9 38%

Endgame

31.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5800, 6929, 3533

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 6929, 3533

Auto

19.0 15%

Teleop

60.6 48%

Endgame

45.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.7pts

Blue projected score127.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.1
Score range: 102–170
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.3Season APEX180.8

50.9Auto19

49.9Teleop60.6

31.2Endgame45.8

108Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	17
teleop	64	63
endgame	45	42
foul	5	0
total	187	122

Result

Final score

187 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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