Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.4 – 82.93

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±18.4

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX -5.46Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 84.72Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 18.14Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.2 ±19.2

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 23.42Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 7.17Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 52.34Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 296, 6364, 6622

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 296, 6364, 6622

Auto

23.8 24%

Teleop

46.8 48%

Endgame

27.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5443, 4955, 7605

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5443, 4955, 7605

Auto

23.2 31%

Teleop

35.1 47%

Endgame

15.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.4pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.5
Score range: 57–123
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191Season APEX225.2

23.8Auto23.2

46.8Teleop35.1

27.2Endgame15.6

91Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	44	50
endgame	71	21
foul	5	5
total	136	99

Result

Final score

136 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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