Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.12 – 63.01

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 75.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±20.2

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 26.04Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 28.87Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7700West Tech Paladins

Provisional

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 24.21Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.5 ±18

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 60.4Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 15.72Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -13.11Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8224, 3975, 7700

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8224, 3975, 7700

Auto

17.1 24%

Teleop

22.9 33%

Endgame

30.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5439, 3117, 3985

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5439, 3117, 3985

Auto

19.0 28%

Teleop

30.1 45%

Endgame

17.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.1pts

Blue projected score63pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.1
Score range: 37–105
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.6Season APEX141.5

17.1Auto19

22.9Teleop30.1

30.1Endgame17.9

57Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	43
teleop	87	70
endgame	49	1
foul	25	5
total	174	119

Result

Final score

174 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 75.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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