Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.25 – 199.91

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.3 ±16.8

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 38.04Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 23.91Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 44.3Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±17.5

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 122.33Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 51.26Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 26.32Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9234, 9220, 5618

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9234, 9220, 5618

Auto

14.3 17%

Teleop

52.5 61%

Endgame

19.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3986, 9624, 6869

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3986, 9624, 6869

Auto

34.4 18%

Teleop

111.6 59%

Endgame

43.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.3pts

Blue projected score199.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.7
Score range: 80–226
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.3Season APEX309.6

14.3Auto34.4

52.5Teleop111.6

19.4Endgame43.8

68Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	53
teleop	75	124
endgame	37	60
foul	20	0
total	139	237

Result

Final score

139 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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