Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.75 – 180.81

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 74.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.7 ±18.8

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 24.72Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 50.89Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX -5.86Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.8 ±15.1

6929Cuivre & Or

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 49.79Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 44.35Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 86.67Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3532, 5800, 7471

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3532, 5800, 7471

Auto

20.5 27%

Teleop

19.1 25%

Endgame

36.6 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6929, 4627, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6929, 4627, 3544

Auto

15.2 8%

Teleop

117.3 65%

Endgame

46.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.8pts

Blue projected score180.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.1
Score range: 44–207
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.7Season APEX388.8

20.5Auto15.2

19.1Teleop117.3

36.6Endgame46.9

43Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	29
teleop	72	150
endgame	28	74
foul	10	0
total	146	253

Result

Final score

146 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 74.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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