Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.01 – 235.66

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

207 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±16.6

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 109.39Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 103.54Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX -1.92Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.5 ±16.4

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 53.82Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 97.71Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 84.13Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3360, 5528, 296

/ 100 compat

Projected

211 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3360, 5528, 296

Auto

50.9 26%

Teleop

112.0 57%

Endgame

33.2 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8067, 8152, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8067, 8152, 6364

Auto

28.3 13%

Teleop

157.7 73%

Endgame

30.1 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score211pts

Blue projected score235.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.7
Score range: 185–262
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.2Season APEX297.5

50.9Auto28.3

112Teleop157.7

33.2Endgame30.1

104Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	16
teleop	124	164
endgame	15	83
foul	20	0
total	207	263

Result

Final score

207 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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