Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.75 – 112.96

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.1 ±18

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 32.47Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 50.7Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 16.58Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.5 ±19.7

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 106.72Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX -6.32Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 12.56Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3550, 2626, 3117

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3550, 2626, 3117

Auto

13.5 13%

Teleop

64.0 61%

Endgame

27.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4952, 3985, 4955

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4952, 3985, 4955

Auto

10.7 10%

Teleop

74.1 66%

Endgame

26.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.8pts

Blue projected score113pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.2
Score range: 74–139
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 143.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.1Season APEX203.5

13.5Auto10.7

64Teleop74.1

27.3Endgame26.8

76Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	59	46
endgame	32	12
foul	0	0
total	108	88

Result

Final score

108 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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