Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.86 – 79.41

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.9 ±18

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 25.27Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 99.49Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 60.1Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.9 ±19.1

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 13.05Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 24.32Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 42.04Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6622, 4947, 7605

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6622, 4947, 7605

Auto

27.3 16%

Teleop

96.7 57%

Endgame

46.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3533, 8224, 8132

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3533, 8224, 8132

Auto

31.5 37%

Teleop

18.9 22%

Endgame

34.4 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score184.9pts

Blue projected score79.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.5
Score range: 53–211
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.9Season APEX172.9

27.3Auto31.5

96.7Teleop18.9

46.9Endgame34.4

90Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	84	39
endgame	19	37
foul	15	35
total	136	124

Result

Final score

136 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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