Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.58 – 20.2

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.2 ±15.6

3532Piranhas

Provisional

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 8.99Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 70.38Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 90.21Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.9 ±19.2

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX -12.1Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX -14.43Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 46.73Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3532, 6364, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3532, 6364, 5528

Auto

43.1 29%

Teleop

68.0 45%

Endgame

38.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 296, 7471, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 296, 7471, 9624

Auto

7.6 52%

Teleop

7.5 51%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.6pts

Blue projected score20.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.4
Score range: -6–196
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.2Season APEX152.9

43.1Auto7.6

68Teleop7.5

38.6Endgame-0.5

64Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	24
teleop	135	25
endgame	81	23
foul	10	0
total	292	72

Result

Final score

292 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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