Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.8 – 128.61

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.1 ±17.5

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 4.57Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 77.54Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8152Escouade

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 89.69Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±19.6

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 5.47Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 60.41Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 62.73Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4955, 3544, 8152

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4955, 3544, 8152

Auto

15.5 10%

Teleop

119.2 75%

Endgame

24.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3985, 2626, 8067

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3985, 2626, 8067

Auto

29.8 23%

Teleop

86.4 67%

Endgame

12.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.8pts

Blue projected score128.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 103–198
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 143.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.1Season APEX186.1

15.5Auto29.8

119.2Teleop86.4

24Endgame12.4

75Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	166	38
endgame	59	16
foul	0	0
total	245	71

Result

Final score

245 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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