Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.66 – 125.46

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±19.1

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 41.61Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 25.77Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 115.28Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.9 ±16.5

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 45.65Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 28.44Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 51.37Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3550, 5443, 4952

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3550, 5443, 4952

Auto

18.0 10%

Teleop

113.3 65%

Endgame

42.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4627, 3975, 5800

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4627, 3975, 5800

Auto

11.2 9%

Teleop

68.5 54%

Endgame

48.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.7pts

Blue projected score125.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.2
Score range: 99–209
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.4Season APEX242.9

18Auto11.2

113.3Teleop68.5

42.4Endgame48.2

29Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	21
teleop	78	65
endgame	40	43
foul	0	5
total	146	134

Result

Final score

146 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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