Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.59 – 100.59

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.2 ±17.5

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 58.15Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 104.75Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 21.69Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.2 ±18

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 21.26Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

4955LA Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 11.77Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 67.56Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8132, 3544, 6622

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8132, 3544, 6622

Auto

43.3 24%

Teleop

91.6 50%

Endgame

47.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9220, 4955, 3996

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9220, 4955, 3996

Auto

12.0 13%

Teleop

53.4 58%

Endgame

27.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score184.6pts

Blue projected score100.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84
Score range: 71–215
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.2Season APEX184.2

43.3Auto12

91.6Teleop53.4

47.6Endgame27.2

120Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	10
teleop	34	23
endgame	34	1
foul	5	0
total	111	34

Result

Final score

111 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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