Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.26 – 78.3

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.7 ±17.3

5618PLS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 40.63Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5439Huskies

Season APEX 84Event APEX 49.56Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 40.07Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±17.5

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 49.11Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 8.15Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 21.04Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5618, 5439, 8132

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5618, 5439, 8132

Auto

39.1 32%

Teleop

53.4 44%

Endgame

29.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7605, 9220, 6869

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7605, 9220, 6869

Auto

24.5 34%

Teleop

37.9 53%

Endgame

8.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.3pts

Blue projected score78.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 52–156
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.7Season APEX232.5

39.1Auto24.5

53.4Teleop37.9

29.6Endgame8.7

111Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	22
teleop	100	48
endgame	48	28
foul	5	55
total	195	153

Result

Final score

195 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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