Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.82 – 145.78

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.1 ±18.6

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 15.06Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

8224STEM 4 ALL

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 18.74Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 5.02Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±18.5

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 12.09Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9234Les aigles d'or

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 42.12Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 91.57Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3117, 8224, 6872

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3117, 8224, 6872

Auto

8.6 18%

Teleop

20.9 43%

Endgame

18.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3533, 9234, 4947

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3533, 9234, 4947

Auto

9.0 6%

Teleop

75.8 53%

Endgame

58.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.8pts

Blue projected score145.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107
Score range: 13–172
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.1Season APEX219.3

8.6Auto9

20.9Teleop75.8

18.8Endgame58.7

112Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	24
teleop	55	106
endgame	44	53
foul	0	0
total	117	183

Result

Final score

117 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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