Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.27 – 126.13

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.4 ±18.6

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 26.22Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8067Alpha Lab

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 50.47Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 11.58Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.2 ±19.7

7471Robo Montagnards

Provisional

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX -13.84Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4952Les Carnicas

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 114.9Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3975Les Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 25.07Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9624, 8067, 5443

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9624, 8067, 5443

Auto

18.6 24%

Teleop

44.9 58%

Endgame

14.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7471, 4952, 3975

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7471, 4952, 3975

Auto

14.6 12%

Teleop

83.7 68%

Endgame

24.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.3pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.9
Score range: 63–151
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 139.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.4Season APEX217.2

18.6Auto14.6

44.9Teleop83.7

14.3Endgame24.8

19Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	24
teleop	113	74
endgame	35	41
foul	15	15
total	200	154

Result

Final score

200 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 69.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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