Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.04 – 89.56

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±16.3

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 36.32Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2626Evolution

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 58.5Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -3.78Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±17

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 49.48Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

296Northern Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 24Event APEX -12.27Rank 36Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 52.35Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4627, 2626, 9220

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4627, 2626, 9220

Auto

16.3 19%

Teleop

58.2 66%

Endgame

13.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7605, 296, 5800

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7605, 296, 5800

Auto

21.5 23%

Teleop

43.9 47%

Endgame

27.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.5
Score range: 65–116
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 139.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.3Season APEX224.7

16.3Auto21.5

58.2Teleop43.9

13.5Endgame27.6

26Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	108	44
endgame	37	36
foul	10	5
total	177	107

Result

Final score

177 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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