Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.95 – 148.75

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.1 ±19.2

3986Express-O

Season APEX 147.2Event APEX 126.38Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 85

6622Stan Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 16.99Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3985Sonic Howl

Provisional

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 15.58Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.7 ±17.1

8132Sysmik

Season APEX 67.1Event APEX 54.21Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6872Panthera Ferro

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 18.05Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 76.49Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3986, 6622, 3985

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3986, 6622, 3985

Auto

31.2 20%

Teleop

81.0 53%

Endgame

41.3 27%

Strengths

· 3986 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8132, 6872, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8132, 6872, 6364

Auto

30.3 20%

Teleop

82.9 54%

Endgame

40.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159pts

Blue projected score148.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.2
Score range: 124–184
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.1Season APEX214.7

31.2Auto30.3

81Teleop82.9

41.3Endgame40.9

71Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	42
teleop	88	30
endgame	29	17
foul	0	0
total	160	89

Result

Final score

160 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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