Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.44 – 170.34

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 84 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.8 ±16.8

3996RIKITIK

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 41.11Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3360Hyperion

Season APEX 123.7Event APEX 104.5Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 85

4947Fenix

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 82.83Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.3 ±18.8

6869Gladiateurs

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 44.29Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 91.28Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3533Mekano

Provisional

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 34.77Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3996, 3360, 4947

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3996, 3360, 4947

Auto

27.4 12%

Teleop

147.2 63%

Endgame

60.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6869, 3544, 3533

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6869, 3544, 3533

Auto

25.8 16%

Teleop

94.2 57%

Endgame

46.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.4pts

Blue projected score170.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.1
Score range: 145–253
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 138.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.8Season APEX333.3

27.4Auto25.8

147.2Teleop94.2

60.6Endgame46.2

48Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	18
teleop	200	31
endgame	35	20
foul	35	0
total	295	69

Result

Final score

295 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 84 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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