Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.31 – 10.38

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±16.8

7605ASTRO

Season APEX 121.5Event APEX 42.4Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3550Robotronix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 10.97Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9624Dynamiques 9624

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 11.94Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.6 ±17.5

5443Les PATenteux

Provisional

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX -4.02Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3117Harfangs

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 21.02Rank 35Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9220Geekos

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -6.62Rank 34Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7605, 3550, 9624

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7605, 3550, 9624

Auto

16.6 30%

Teleop

28.7 51%

Endgame

10.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5443, 3117, 9220

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5443, 3117, 9220

Auto

4.1 100%

Teleop

-16.8 0%

Endgame

16.0 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.3pts

Blue projected score10.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: -15–90
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.9Season APEX132.6

16.6Auto4.1

28.7Teleop-16.8

10.7Endgame16

21Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	22
teleop	107	19
endgame	11	11
foul	20	0
total	166	52

Result

Final score

166 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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